MyDD :: (Poll) Obama Squeaks Ahead in Florida

(Poll) Obama Squeaks Ahead in Florida

by Homebrewer, Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 12:57:22 PM EST

Obama pulls ahead by 1 point in the latest Rasmussen poll for the State of Florida.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/florida/election_2008_ florida_presidential_election

Women: 50% to 43% Obama
Men: 47% to 41% McCain

I'm not a subscriber to Rasmussen Reports so I can't get more detailed crosstabs, but I've heard people say that, like Ohio, the crosstabs in this poll are a little screwy.

Florida is going to be a challenge for Obama but the state seems to be (slowly) coming around for him. His opposition to offshore drilling may be helping him here. Robbing McCain of either Ohio or Florida makes winning for McCain nearly impossible. This poll also provides some psychological relief for Obama fans whos hearts sank at the sight of the last Ohio poll ;)

Tags: Obama, Florida, Poll, Rasmussen (all tags)

Permalink :: 16 Comments :: Post a Comment

That can't be! (none / 0)

Clinton won Florida. How can they be voting for Obama?

Oh wait, the majority of people put party before person.

by iohs2008 on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:07:58 PM EST

Florida (none / 0)

Florida is probably the one state where Clinton would have performed better since it skews older.

The only reason why Obama isn't ahead by 10 is because Hillary convinced about 200,000 old people that Obama is the devil.

by Lance Bryce on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:09:45 PM EST

Well (2.00 / 1)

I think she would perform better in a multitude of states, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia. Not that it's a huge deal. Either of them would win New York and Pennsylvania and no one is winning Tennessee or Kentucky.

I'm not sure she convinced them, I think they're convinced she convinced them he's the devil, but one thing is for sure, many of those older folks do not like him.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:18:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (none / 0)

Actually you're right. Kentucky, West Virginia, New York, and Arkansas.

I'm not convinced that Clinton would have stood up to long term scrutiny in swing states like PA and OH, though. Most of the strength of her polling numbers in those states was the result of the media basically ignoring her (critically) for 2 months as the primary season wound down because it was over.

My grandparents are part of the hate Obama crowd in Florida...though I suspect they'll still hold their noses and vote for him.

by Lance Bryce on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:39:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree (none / 0)

She would have run stronger in AR, TN, FL, OH, PA, KY, WV and several really blue states.

But he runs better in WI, MN, WA, OR, CO, IA, VA and many really red states so that argument always cancelled the other out.

by conspiracy on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 02:22:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No... (2.00 / 1)

...the only reason Obama isn't 10 points ahead is because McCain is strong in Florida and Obama isn't quite as strong.

Seriously, I've been an Obama supporter the whole way through, but Clinton didn't do what you're suggesting she did.

Florida's voting blocs are bookended by senior citizens (strong for McCain) and Cuban ex-nationals (also strong for McCain). McCain also has had, at least in the past, a reasonably strong Jewish support group, though I suspect that it's more of the older Jews and in approximately the same ratios as older non-Jews now.

I wouldn't put too much hope in Florida. There is a whole lot of institutionalized support for Republicans here... remember, there are plenty of Democrats in this state that are effectively complicit with the Republican majority and governor. Also, there's a gay marriage amendment on the ballot, and the support for it was strong the last time I was down there.

In short, don't blame Clinton where there are bigger villains involved.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:23:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No... (none / 0)

I understand the state is trending red (a bit). But if Obama is ahead by an average of 5 nationally, then he should be ahead by 2-3 in Florida. This isn't happening.

Many older people in Florida hate Obama because they were tricked (by Clinton) into believing that there was some sort of grand DNC conspiracy to disenfranchise them. I hate to rehash all of this...but it's pretty obvious that the source of Obama's bad polling in Florida is Hillary Clinton's feigned theatrics about disenfranchisement (theatrics that even Hillary Clinton knew were completely shameless after saying "they won't count"). By villifying Obama the way she did, I'm thinking she's going to depress Democratic performance in the state by about 2-3 points in both Florida and Michigan. Obama will probably still squeak out Florida and win Michigan by 6-8 though.

Frankly, that's the main legacy of the (basically pointless) last 3 months of her campaign - the damage done to Obama's image amongst older Democrats and working class voters. It'll take years for him to repair that.

by Lance Bryce on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:44:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Come on. (none / 0)

And if Obama's message were clearer or stronger or he'd done more campaigning in Florida yet, his numbers might be better.

The people that believed Clinton's shtick are not the majority. The state is trending red, they have a Republican governor, and their demographics are almost as bad for Obama as West Virginia. That Obama is doing as well as he is is a surprise to me. Clinton barely factors by this point.

The primary is over. Get over it.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:54:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

As much as (none / 0)

I'm not a fan of Clinton, I find that resentment toward Obama existed long before the primary got nasty...back to when he won in Iowa.

IMO, these older Democrats saw the primary has nothing more than a coronation for Hillary Clinton and everyone would just get behind her and the other Democrats would only run for show. When they discovered younger Americans and new voters were coming out in droves for a guy with less experience, it was offensive to them and the fact that he won was a slap in the face for them. There's this attitude of "shut up, sit down, you don't know what you're getting involved in" attitude from these older Democrats. There's definitely a generational divide and it's what led to the PUMA situation, not vice versa.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 03:20:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I give up on Rasmussen (none / 0)

Sorry, they are so out there. They have Obama trailing in Ohio by 10 with leaners and leading in Florida by 2 with leaners? You have to be kidding me.

by elrod on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:21:55 PM EST

Re: I give up on Rasmussen (none / 0)

sometimes polls get wacky results.

But rasmussen is one of the most respected pollsters (after Survey USA). I like them + Pew and Quinnipiac.

by Lance Bryce on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:46:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ohio is going Dem this year (none / 0)

The polls don't mean shit right now. Ohio has been one of if not the most economically devastated parts of the country over the last 8 years. The GOP brand has been in the trash for several years - and I have seen almost no McCain organization on the ground. Trust me, once the election is in full swing the numbers will start to widen in Obama's favor.

by highgrade on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:29:17 PM EST

Re: (Poll) Obama Squeaks Ahead in Florida (none / 0)

If McCain is really and truly ahead by 10 in Ohio, we don't have to worry about polling in Florida or any other state, for that matter--McCain will win in November by an electoral landslide.I don't believe for a minute that McCain
has a 10-point lead in any REAL battleground state, much less Ohio. Then again, neither does Obama, at least, not at this point. Obama ahead by one in FL? It does seem more plausable than the OH poll, but still...not while trailing by 10 in OH at the same time. I think these polls contradict one another; we WON'T see this kind of result come election day. Also, as others have stated, I feel most of these early state polls shouldn't be taken too seriously. This is the political silly season,after all, and we will know more of what is really out there come September.

by Poll Addict on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:47:55 PM EST

Re: (Poll) Obama Squeaks Ahead in Florida (none / 0)

Unlike some BO supporters i still think this election in going to be very close and IMHO the most important states right now are NM and CO.

Both have democratic governers and sizable latino voting blocks. FL seems really unlikely to me. Maybe OH with HRC on the ticket but without her McCain could easily win OH. But NM and CO are key and in those two states BO seems to be up in most of those polls I have seen and with the DEM convention in CO he should get a small bump after the convention.

david

by giusd on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 03:57:37 PM EST

Re: (Poll) Obama Squeaks Ahead in Florida (2.00 / 1)

IA, NM, and CO + Kerry States are basically the BO firewall. If McCain starts cracking into those there's cause for serious concern. Overall, it seems like McCain has his hands full trying to retain Bush states. Big dreams of taking California, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, and Michigan away from the Democrats seems over at this point.

by Homebrewer on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 05:04:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (Poll) Obama Squeaks Ahead in Florida (none / 0)

A point brought out in the article linked below.
Remember...Most States already have offices/staff
from the Primary..
This is NOT the case in FL and MI for the obvious reason.
Obama is just NOW getting set up in FL. There remain some questions and concerns but I am sure they will be addressed.
It will be rolling by September.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/104/story/448 38.html

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 04:28:18 PM EST

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